It’s very hard to gauge what your time might be in Boston, but these charts can help.
The Boston Marathon isn’t your typical marathon course. It has a significant net-downhill profile, but it also has some monster hills in the second half of the race. It’s easy to go out too fast, but it’s not easy to run even splits. Plus, you’re on a starting line with runners of all different abilities, some of whom are Boston Marathon veterans and others who are complete rookies.
For all of those reasons, it’s very hard to gauge what your time might be in Boston, even if you are in tip-top shape, have done long downhill tempo runs in your training, and have the patience to save something for the second half. Even when you reach the 13.1-mile mark of the race near Wellesley College, you’ll wonder what your finish time will be. Can you possibly run even splits or a negative split over the second half of the race?
Well, noted endurance race stat guy Raymond Britt might have a way to help. The seven charts in this gallery based on statistics from the 2013 Boston Marathon can help predict runners’ finishing times. (Note: Analysis is based on all 2013 finishers under 4:15, before the race was suspended.)
Britt ran the Boston Marathon 13 consecutive years from 1996-2008. He’s the author of “Boston Marathon: the Legendary Course Guide.” See more of Raymond’s Boston Marathon Analysis at RaceBoston.com and follow him on Twitter at @RunTriMedia.